What does Hoops PSM actually do?

It projects the rest of a basketball game from possessions rather than from the scoreboard. The model estimates remaining possessions and shrinks observed scoring efficiency toward a pregame expectation, so a hot shooting stretch does not drag the projection with it.

Does it cover college basketball as well as the NBA?

Yes, with separate parameters for each. A 40-minute college game and a 48-minute NBA game have different pace baselines and different efficiency ceilings, and applying NBA settings to college games is a common error in live basketball modelling.

Is this a picks service?

No. It is a model and a set of tools. It gives you a projected total, an expected value, a Kelly-scaled stake and the confidence behind them. What you do with the number is yours.

Live model

Hoops PSM

In-game totals advice for NBA and college basketball. Pace, possession and structure-adjusted projections with win probability, EV, Kelly sizing and a hard halftime green-light gate.

Game state

Enter the live clock, score and posted total.

LeaguePeriodClock remainingMM:SSTotal pointsAway teamHome teamLive total linePossessions usedOptional

Model

Projection sourceBlend weight (PPM)Pregame totalRegressionHalf-life (min)Momentum windowMomentum weightPossessions (game)σ (points)Base bet ($)Odds format

Over oddsUnder odds

Score markersOne per line: minute, total points

Untitled matchup

Q3 · 6:00 · 30.0 min elapsed

Lean: Over

Projected total

263.9

Model: Blend (0.60 PPM)

P(Over) / P(Under)

100% / 0%

σ 12.0 · edge 35.4

EV / Kelly

0.906

Kelly: 100%

Recommended stake

$95.15

1.903x base (cap 5x)

Observed PPM: 5.60

Baseline PPM: 4.93

Confidence: 82%

Scenario grid

Scenario	Proj	Line	Edge	Lean	Conf	Win%
Conservative	263.1	228.5	34.6	Over	82%	100%
Base	263.9	228.5	35.4	Over	82%	100%
Aggressive	263.9	228.5	35.4	Over	82%	100%

Signal rating

0–100 signal strength — grows with edge size and time elapsed. Not a win probability.

Conservative

100

Base

100

Aggressive

100

Frequently asked questions

What does Hoops PSM actually do?: It projects the rest of a basketball game from possessions rather than from the scoreboard. The model estimates remaining possessions and shrinks observed scoring efficiency toward a pregame expectation, so a hot shooting stretch does not drag the projection with it.
Does it cover college basketball as well as the NBA?: Yes, with separate parameters for each. A 40-minute college game and a 48-minute NBA game have different pace baselines and different efficiency ceilings, and applying NBA settings to college games is a common error in live basketball modelling.
Is this a picks service?: No. It is a model and a set of tools. It gives you a projected total, an expected value, a Kelly-scaled stake and the confidence behind them. What you do with the number is yours.

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