The person behind it
Hoops PSM is built and maintained by Joseph Tuttle. The work behind it is ordinary: years of counting possessions off broadcast feeds, keeping a bet log honest enough to be uncomfortable, and rebuilding the projection every time it was wrong in a way that repeated. There is no room full of quants here, and pretending otherwise would be the first lie on a page about credibility.
The model's public accounting lives on the How It Works page. Every formula the engine uses is written out there with worked arithmetic for both leagues, because a betting model you cannot audit by hand is a model you should not trust.
What the model claims
- It projects remaining scoring from pace and possessions, not from the current score.
- It shrinks observed efficiency toward a pregame baseline by sample size, so early shooting variance carries only the weight it has earned.
- It converts that projection into a win probability, an expected value against the posted price, and a Kelly-scaled stake.
- It applies league-specific parameters — a 40-minute college game is not a shortened NBA game.
What it does not claim
It does not claim guaranteed profit, and you should be sceptical of anything that does. Live markets carry higher hold than pregame markets. A genuine edge in them is narrow, it is available in a minority of games, and the discipline to skip the other thirty-six spots on a slate matters more than the model itself. Hoops PSM is informational software. It is not financial advice and it is not a sportsbook.
Contact
Questions, model disagreements, and bug reports are all welcome — the disagreements most of all. Reach out through the account area once you are signed up, or read the responsible gambling resources if betting has stopped being something you choose.