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Notes from the live market

Long-form work on why in-game basketball prices move for the wrong reasons, and how to build a process that survives contact with a fast board.

Market Structure2026-08-1418 min read
Why Live Betting Belongs to Basketball
Basketball asks 200 questions a game, its clock tells the truth, and the market prices off a scoreboard that blends a signal that converges with one that never will. The long version of the argument.
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